U.S. ECONOMIC MACRO COMMENTARY & INSIGHTS
Forget Neutral. Are Financial Conditions Actually Restrictive?
- The Fed delivered the expected 25 bp hike and a dot plot that points toward additional tightening.
- Growth forecasts moved higher, unemployment forecasts moved lower, and inflation forecasts remained above target.
- The bigger takeaway may be that Warsh appears focused on financial conditions rather than traditional estimates of the neutral rate.
Markets came into September focused on whether the Fed would raise rates. By the end of the press conference, a more interesting question had emerged: does Warsh care where neutral is?
Chicago Fed Net financial conditions index
**negative values indicate financial conditions are looser than historical average
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