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U.S. ECONOMIC MACRO COMMENTARY & INSIGHTS

Labor Market Cools, but Inflation Remains the Bigger Problem 

July 2, 2026

  • June nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000, well below expectations and accompanied by downward revisions to prior months.
  • The unemployment rate declined to 4.2%, though much of the improvement was driven by a drop in labor force participation rather than stronger hiring.
  • Hiring momentum has clearly moderated from the stronger pace seen earlier this year, but the data stops short of signaling a material deterioration in labor market conditions.
  • Chair Kevin Warsh continues to emphasize incoming data over explicit policy guidance, increasing the market importance of each major economic release.

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nonfarm payrolls print vs. revision

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2026 Multifamily Investor Sentiment Survey

In December 2025, we surveyed over 250 of our trusted clients from various companies, with most holding senior-level titles, for our second annual Multifamily Investor Sentiment Survey. Our goal is to provide a comprehensive view of current market sentiments to our clients, and we plan to share our findings in our detailed report.

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2026 Multifamily
Powerhouse Poll

In Berkadia’s Annual Multifamily Powerhouse Poll, we surveyed over 200 investment sales advisors and mortgage bankers to offer their unique perspectives on the state of the commercial real estate (CRE) industry.

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Labor Market Cools, but Inflation Remains the Bigger Problem 

After three consecutive months of stronger-than-expected payroll growth, June finally delivered a downside surprise. Employers added just 57,000 jobs during the month and prior months were revised lower, taking some of the shine off what had looked like a meaningful reacceleration in hiring. Headline unemployment rate improved to 4.2%, but the details were less encouraging.…

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