At the end of 2023, the Northern New Jersey market had one of the highest occupancy rates in the nation. Two hundred basis points above the national average, the metro’s occupancy rate was 96.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to Berkadia’s 2024 Forecast Report.
Looking ahead, Northern New Jersey’s occupancy rate is projected to increase 10 basis points to 96.6 percent by the end of 2024, despite record amounts of inventory forecasted to come online. With 18,792 projected incoming units in 2024, the most the market has seen in the last 20 years, occupancy growth is underpinned by demand outpacing deliveries.
Submarkets closest to New York City such as Jersey City and Hoboken/North Hudson County are forecasted to see high levels of leasing activity. These areas offer more affordable rents than neighborhoods across the Hudson River in Manhattan, while also providing easy access to major employers in New York and New Jersey. Specifically, the Jersey City submarket is expected to have the most net move-ins in the metro, with 5,550 units set to be absorbed in 2024.
Amid positive net absorption and increasing occupancy rates, Northern New Jersey’s effective rent is projected to increase 3.3 percent year-over-year, one of the highest annual increases in the Northeast. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia MSA’s average effective rent is only forecast to rise 3.0 percent and New York City MSA’s 2.7 percent by the end of 2024.
– Berkadia Research