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U.S. ECONOMIC MACRO COMMENTARY & INSIGHTS

Between a Rock and a Hard Place

March 6, 2026
  • U.S. engagement with Iran ignites inflation fears due to projected increase in oil prices
  • Market volatility spikes with the duration of the conflict unclear
  • February nonfarm payroll print misses significantly to the downside

The Federal Reserve is in desperate need of a timeout. Just five weeks ago, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was content with the state of the U.S. economy. Fed officials believed current rates were at appropriate levels to promote progress on the Fed’s dual mandate. Jerome Powell was running out the clock on his term as Chair, stating at the January FOMC meeting that current rates were in a plausible range of neutral. Since the January meeting, however, the script on the U.S. economy has been flipped.

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Nonfarm Payrolls Print Vs. Revision

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Insights

Between a Rock and a Hard Place

The Federal Reserve is in desperate need of a timeout. Just five weeks ago, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was content with the state of the U.S. economy. Fed officials believed current rates were at appropriate levels to promote progress on the Fed’s dual mandate. Jerome Powell was running out the clock on his…

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Insights

A Dual Mandate Double Feature

The job of the Federal Reserve is straightforward: keep the U.S. economy on solid footing with good growth. Through the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed sets monetary policy with two goals in mind – maximum employment and stable prices – commonly known as its “dual mandate.” This week’s economic prints exhibited a dual mandate…

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Insights

Powell Holds Rates Steady, Trump Nominates Replacement Chair

Recent headlines surrounding the Federal Reserve have varied. On the monetary policy front, macroeconomic conditions appear solid, with tariff-driven inflation concerns largely overstated and unemployment holding steady. Away from economic fundamentals, Chair Powell continues to face political pressure as his term as Fed Chair nears its conclusion. The Federal Reserve held its first meeting of…

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