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U.S. ECONOMIC MACRO COMMENTARY & INSIGHTS

March Payrolls Delivers Upside Suprise, Fed’s Holding Pattern Continues

April 3, 2026
  • March nonfarm payrolls rebounded sharply to 178,000, beating all estimates, with unemployment falling to 4.3%
  • Powell signaled longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored, reinforcing the Fed’s wait-and-see posture
  • Escalating energy disruptions tied to the conflict in Iran keep the inflationary backdrop fragile

The U.S. macroeconomic landscape has been generally off-kilter for over a month—this week, the economy received some much-needed clarity on both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate. The March nonfarm payrolls report delivered an unambiguous upside surprise, with job growth rebounding sharply, offering reassurance that the employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate remains intact.

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Nonfarm Payrolls Print Vs. Revision

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2026 Multifamily Investor Sentiment Survey

In December 2025, we surveyed over 250 of our trusted clients from various companies, with most holding senior-level titles, for our second annual Multifamily Investor Sentiment Survey. Our goal is to provide a comprehensive view of current market sentiments to our clients, and we plan to share our findings in our detailed report.

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2026 Multifamily
Powerhouse Poll

In Berkadia’s Annual Multifamily Powerhouse Poll, we surveyed over 200 investment sales advisors and mortgage bankers to offer their unique perspectives on the state of the commercial real estate (CRE) industry.

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March Payrolls Delivers Upside Suprise, Fed’s Holding Pattern Continues

The U.S. macroeconomic landscape has been generally off-kilter for over a month—this week, the economy received some much-needed clarity on both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate. This morning’s March nonfarm payrolls report delivered an unambiguous upside surprise, with job growth rebounding sharply, offering reassurance that the employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate remains…

Read More
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